November 27, Part II

Santana, another Viola Trade?

Towards the end of the regular season, and around the trading deadline, there was that should the Twins trade Johan Santana question and talk that circulated. Most of which started out as fun speculation, and maybe never really progressed past that, and if there was any merit behind it in the first place turned from a fun what if article and sports talk show topic to the Twins are without a doubt going to trade him, with no confirmed sources to back it up. There are several sites that are speculating that the Twins are in talks with the New York Yankees to trade the two-time Cy Young Award winner. I first herd about the proposed trade on ESPN.com, and was a little hesitant to believe it as the Eastern SPorts Network has a tendency to at times make up their own sports news, but you have to pay close attention to catch it. (For example during the trading deadline two years ago when Alfonso Soriano was available then Twins GM Terry Ryan said the team wasn't interested in acquiring him, but on ESPN they were reporting the Twins as being one of the front runners to get him. The point being that if you had just watched that report on ESPN, and didn't look elsewhere, you might have been disappointed and frustrated with Minnesota for not getting him, when they weren't going after him in the first place) With it being a possibility that Johan might be traded before he becomes a free-agent at the end of this upcoming season, the Twins fan in me is a little confused.

Between the Twins four stars of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, and Johan Santana, chances were that they'd only be able to sign three of them, and without a doubt both Mauer and Morneau were staying put, which just left the question of would Hunter or Santana be gone? The Twins did make a three-year $45 million offer to Hunter in August, which was rejected and the Angels came calling with a five-year $90 million contract which the seven-time Gold Glove Award winner signed last week. Before the trading deadline second baseman Luis Castillo and his $5.75 million salary was traded to the Mets, and while there was no merit behind it the speculation was that the third highest paid Twin was let go so part of his salary to go toward re-signing either Hunter or Santana. With $21.25 million now freed up on the payroll (Hunter $12 million, Castillo $5.75, Retired Rondell White $2.5 all gone) the Twins for sure have $15-17 million a season that could be offered to re-sign Santana, who made $13 million this past season. Where I'm a little confused is with Torii Hunters $12 million gone (and the $15 million a season they offered him) why the Twins are looking to trade Johan? It seems as though the money is now there, and one of the big arguments was that the team isn't getting the revenue they need in the Dome to keep such players, but with the new stadium coming and the new revenue streams that'll bring shouldn't they have enough now?

The other reason Santana might be traded is that he might be viewed as Frank Viola was in 1989, another left handed Cy Young winner who's best pitching days are now behind him, and in the Viola trade the Twins acquired a few players that helped them win the World Series in 1991.

Going back to the start of the 1989 season, Frank Viola was just a year removed from being the '87 World Series MVP and the '88 AL Cy Young Award winner (24-7, 2.64 ERA, 255.1 IP, 7 CG, 193 SO). What happened to Viola has been true for several Cy Young Winners (just like Barry Zito, and Johan after they won theirs for example) in that there's a more in depth scouting report put on you and it's not the the batters your trying to pitch against, but the advance scouts and scouts in general that are putting more emphasis on what your pitching, your out pitches, pitches in certain counts, etc... that wasn't there before. Frankie V went 8-12 with a 3.79 ERA and was shipped to the New York Mets at the trade deadline, and did go 5-5 in 12 starts with a 3.38 ERA and his combined totals for the '89 season was a 13-17 record in 36 starts, 9 CG, 261 IP, 211 SO, and a 3.65 ERA. Granted a drop off from the year before, but it was the only time Viola had over 200 K's in a season and he did win more then 10 games, which outside of his first 2 seasons and last 3 injury riddled ones did every full healthy year he pitched. Through the 1989 trade deadline Viola had a career 112-93 record with 3.85 ERA in seven and a half seasons ('83-'89), and in the seven and a half after the trade ('89-'96) went 64-57 with a 3.51 ERA, and not counting his last 3 seasons in which he started only 12 games and went 2-5, Viola was 62-52 with a 3.30 ERA from '89-'93. The obvious is that there was a slight drop off in wins, but his ERA was almost a half run better, and forgotten is his first full season with the Mets in which he went 20-12 with a 2.67 ERA and four 10+ win seasons, just one 10+ win season less then before the trade. My point is that as is usually the case in all players, the production drops off as they get older, but there really wasn't a hugh he can't get any one out type of drop off, and had four more decent seasons before several injury's in his last 3 seasons forced him to retire. Who's to say if the Twins would've gone on and won the World Series had they not traded him, but Minnesota did struggle to find that caliber a pitcher to replace him, which came along in Jack Morris for a season in '91, but you could almost argue was missing until Johan Santana.

Should the Twins trade Santana, for the same reasons in which they did Viola, there's no guarantee that the players received in return will bring a World Series title, and you could again argue that it'll put them further away from one. This past season was a down Johan year (15-13, 3.33 ERA, 33 GS, 219 IP, 235 SO) from his past three years. With two Cy Young Awards under his belt and at 28 years old, baring an injury or string of one's you could say he has 4-10 years left in his career. If double digit wins, an above .500 record, 30+ games started and an ERA around 3.50 is going to be the Santana the baseball world sees the rest of his career, why get rid of him? There are so many other pitchers that in their career year won't come close to double digit wins, an at or above .500 record, and an ERA under 4.00, yet many Twins fans want him gone for the chance of getting something better? There's no guarantee that when Francisco Liriano comes back this year he'll be the same pitcher he was before his surgery and could turn out to be another Mark Prior or Kerry Wood, and should he be the same dominant pitcher that out dueled Roger Clemens and win a Cy Young do you get rid of him as well? It been pointed out that Santana might not win another Cy Young, and does he need to? If he has five more years like last season he doesn't need to. Should he go to the Yankees and help them win a World Series, and the Twins stay at around or below .500, the same fans who wanted the trade will be the same one's pissed at the team for letting him go, but won't admit to it.

Bottom line is that with Santana the 2008 Twins look like a .500 team that might be in the playoff hunt at the end of August and maybe into the first week of September but not as good as Detroit or the White Sox to win the division. Take him out of the picture, and you'll need Morneau and Michael Cuddyer to put up similar numbers as they have the past few seasons. Jason Kubel to hit when the season matters along with Craig Monroe to get back to where he was before last year. Nick Punto to not flirt with .200. Scott Baker and Matt Garza to step it up in the rotation. Pat Neshek to get over his arm troubles that forced his season to end early and remain the lights out set-man man for Joe Nathan, but the main key is to have Mauer tough it up and play a whole season even when hurt, and how Liriano pitches, but even that may not be enough. Trading Santana would only seem like a cost cutting decision which is mind boggling to me since the new stadium is right around the corner, and lets not forget that the Twins finished dead last in the American League in 1990 after trading Viola, and only a one of it's kind that had never been done in the history of baseball type miraculous turn it around season in 1991 made that trade pay off to a World Series title, and unlike this current edition that team had the same nucellus of players that won the World Series in 1987.